https://scarecrowwatch.org/alerts.html Mass-atrocity early-warning alerts for the eleven ASEAN states — changes in risk scores and conflict forecasts. en Wed, 14 Oct 2026 01:52:39 +0000 https://scarecrowwatch.org/index.html#country=Thailandviews|Thailand|2026-09Wed, 14 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000VIEWS projected state-based conflict fatalities over the next 12 months moved from 89 to 428. This is a conflict forecast, not an atrocity prediction. https://scarecrowwatch.org/index.html#country=Philippinesviews|Philippines|2026-09Wed, 14 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000VIEWS projected state-based conflict fatalities over the next 12 months moved from 246 to 780. This is a conflict forecast, not an atrocity prediction. https://scarecrowwatch.org/index.html#country=Thailandviews|Thailand|2026-08Wed, 14 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000VIEWS projected state-based conflict fatalities over the next 12 months moved from 332 to 89. This is a conflict forecast, not an atrocity prediction. https://scarecrowwatch.org/index.html#country=Philippinesviews|Philippines|2026-08Wed, 14 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000VIEWS projected state-based conflict fatalities over the next 12 months moved from 489 to 246. This is a conflict forecast, not an atrocity prediction. https://scarecrowwatch.org/index.html#country=Indonesiaviews|Indonesia|2026-08Wed, 14 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000VIEWS projected state-based conflict fatalities over the next 12 months moved from 366 to 209. This is a conflict forecast, not an atrocity prediction. https://scarecrowwatch.org/index.html#country=Thailandviews|Thailand|2026-07Wed, 14 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000VIEWS projected state-based conflict fatalities over the next 12 months moved from 66 to 332. This is a conflict forecast, not an atrocity prediction. https://scarecrowwatch.org/index.html#country=Philippinesviews|Philippines|2026-07Wed, 14 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000VIEWS projected state-based conflict fatalities over the next 12 months moved from 213 to 489. This is a conflict forecast, not an atrocity prediction. https://scarecrowwatch.org/index.html#country=Indonesiaviews|Indonesia|2026-07Wed, 14 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000VIEWS projected state-based conflict fatalities over the next 12 months moved from 95 to 366. This is a conflict forecast, not an atrocity prediction.